What did I think of the Australian election?
In the hours during and the days following the election, because of my work with Climate 200, a lot of people were great about reaching out to ask, “What do you think?” in various ways, about the results of the May 3rd federal election in Australia.
A week later, we still didn’t have results. Two weeks, and some independent seats were still in the balance. Some seats, like Kooyong, were called one way, then reversed to undeclared. Then, a full month later, June 4th, finally the seat of Bradfield was called, by just 26 votes out of over 100,000:
Feelings
In the days following the election, I felt everything —
- Relief, because we didn’t have a government who were anti-renewables and backed by the fossil fuel lobby
- Devastation, because my favourite candidate, Caz Heise, in Cowper (just South of where I live in the Page electorate) lost a close race to the local Nationals* candidate.
- Anticipation, because so many independent seats were still in the balance.
- Pride, because returning candidates like Allegra Spender and Zali Steggal showed that by delivering for their community, they were re-elected.
*The Nationals are a far right party in Australia, in rural Australia, backed by the fossil fuel lobby and agribusiness.
The Actual Results
Labor Majority Government landslide
This was a good old fashioned ass-kicking. While thankfully we don’t have the electoral college in Australia, a five point swing from one party to another can greatly shift the balance of power in parliament. This is the largest majority since I’ve moved to Australia, by either party., with Labor holding 94 of the total 150 seats.
Independent candidates who are climate aligned re-elected!
8 of the 9 climate independents were re-elected, which makes a huge statement that the movement is here to stay. But the movement became about much more than climate, it became about being a better democracy, and representing your community instead of just a political party.
Why this outcome?
In January, polls showed the Coalition (Liberals + Nationals) expected to re-take the house. Cost of living, a housing crisis, and honestly not much progress by the Albanese government on anything of substance. The mediocre Labor government was ripe for plucking. Peter Dutton, the opposition leader who would be prime minister if the Coalition gained a majority, was in the cat bird seat.
The disdain for Trump, especially tariffs, did create an anti-right backlash in Australia, much like in Canada. But my own personal views on what transpired, and echoed by one political commentator, is that Dutton’s campaign was one of the worst run in Australian history. They made late budget announcements that would raise taxes. Their fossil fuel buddies talked them into a pro-nuclear campaign which fell flat, made false claims, and was rebutted far and wide.
“Turkey Drop” Promises by Labor
In the weeks leading up to the election, Labor began to throw taxpayer money at the campaign. While we have a shortage of doctors in Australia, Labor announced that 80% of GP visits would be bulk billed (free with medicare). They did announce a great home energy battery program. The announced tax cuts. $10 billion for building 100,000 homes for first home buyers (which won’t fix the fundamentals of housing issues at all). The list goes on. They could have announced bold policies that could help address some structural challenges for Australia. Instead, they just threw money at votes.
It reminds me of an episode of WKRP where on Thanksgiving, the radio station does a turkey giveaway, where the birds are dropped from the weather helicopter. “With God as my witness, I thought they could fly…”
Why voting matters in Australia
The difference between having three less versus 4 more climate independents in Parliament (and everything in between) came down to ~1000 votes in a number seats. Nicole Boele won the seat of Bradfield by 26 votes. Previous counts had the total the opposite way by just 10 votes.
Why a Labor Majority Government is a good thing for Australia
- Not a climate denier government backed by the Coal lobby
- Women voters show their power. Boom!
- Shows that pushing bad energy policy is a losing formula.
Why a Labor Majority Government is a bad thing for Australia
- Labor Unions in Australia are one of the biggest impediments to innovation and clean energy projects. With Labor in power, unions can slow the progress of new transmission lines to a crawl.
- The Expansion of Oil and Gas projects has already been approved by this new government! It’s unlikely that Labor will do anything about Australia’s export emissions… Some had hoped Labor would be more aggressive because of their landslide win, but very quickly were proven wrong.
- Without independents in the balance of power, the unethical election “reforms” bill that was passed at the last minute of the last parliment, largely to keep independents out of office but still allow Labor to collect from Labor Unions and the Coalition to use it’s massive investment war chest, will be much harder to remove with a majority government.
- Interest on debt is the 4th largest expenditure in government, and Labor doesn’t show any more fiscal responsibility than their opposition.
How many climate independents are in parliament now?
- Now at 9! Zali Steggal (Warringah), Allegra Spender (Wentworth), Sophie Scamps (Mackellar), Kate Chaney (Curtin), Andrew Wilkie (Clark), Helen Haines (Indi), and Monique Ryan (Kooyong) were all returned to their seats in parliament, along with David Pocock (ACT) in the Senate. Only Zoe Daniel was not re-elected in Goldstein. Nicolette Boele took over the seat in Bradfield.
- Dai Le in Fowler (not a Climate 200 supported candidate) won again.
- Andrew Gee, who left the National Party to run as an independent (definitely NOT a climate or integrity aligned candidate) won over Caz Heise, the climate independent in Calare.
No tattoo — but a lot of gratitude
We did not get anywhere near our $50,000 goal in our fundraising campaign, so I avoided having to get a tattoo. The electorates of Clark and Wentworth, both gained more than 8% in the % of first place ballots from their pre-poll from Feb 17th, so had we hit the target, one of those would have forever been tattooed on my right arm.
Thanks to everyone who contributed to our personal campaign as well as the campaign for people in tech. We wouldn’t have gotten where we did without your support!
Under the microscope (or through the looking glass?)
I learned a great deal about my home country during this campaign. I saw nasty slander campaigns via hidden funding sources from the Liberal party in electorates held by independent candidates. It did not make me love politics. It did make me amazed that these candidates would stand for their electorates when they face outright lies and slander.
The best we can usually hope for in government is that they don’t make things worse. That we’ll get incremental progress in the two steps forward, one step back.
But you still have to vote, or things get much, much worse. USA, anyone?
A few takeaways:
- 1,000,000 votes were cast for independent candidates (up 250,000 from previous election)
- LNP stretched to defend so many. Dutton lost his own seat, and independent Ellie Smith’s campaign played a critical role. His loss was a direct result of the Climate 200 supported polls that fuelled the Labor push in his electorate. 4 weeks out from the election, the Liberals changed a pro-Dutton billboard to attack on Ellie Smith. The Liberal party took their eye off the ball.
- For many people, some of the seats will be their first time caring about a campaign, and their first loss. But it’s actually energised these people to work even harder next time.
The temptation to jump to big conclusions
Swaying the court of public opinion to have your narrative win…
Was this a repudiation of Trump?
Is this the beginning of the end of the destructive power of the Murdoch right-wing media barrage?
Does this say something about a turning point in human history?
How will this affect the NBA finals?
As we know, history is often written by the winners, until someone intelligent in the future does the work to re-cast what was assumed in the immediate aftermath of events.
The truth is always more complex than we can handle, and of course the search for meaning comes naturally to humans whose ability to communicate in the abstract separated us from our evolutionary ancestors. But to look for deeper meaning in anything is a fool’s errand. Momentary politics, with repercussions that last for years.
